Chris Miller: Despite vaccine announcements, “we’re looking at 3-5 years of COVID”
When Pfizer first announced its COVID-19 vaccine candidate in mid-November, the world’s collective hopes soared. But Chris Miller, one of Australia’s leading risk and business continuity experts, happens to know a lot about both clinical trials and supply chain management. In our recent conversation with her, she recommended keeping expectations for an expedited return to normalcy in check.
Many hoped a vaccination rollout might occur in spring/summer 2021. But Ms. Miller asserts that a 3-5 period of “COVID Normal” is more likely. In this scenario, the spread of the disease will still need to be mitigated by practices like social distancing. Hence, all organisations must prepare to operate in this scenario for longer than they initially assumed they would.
Why the wait? Ms. Miller’s assessment includes factors such as safety, manufacturing capacity, logistics, and overall supply chain realities.
“First off, none of these vaccines have got approval. It's all very well for Pfizer to make an announcement and see their stocks go through the roof. But they still have a fair bit of the trial to complete before they'll have a dataset which can then be peer reviewed.
“And then when they get through those scientific hoops, they've got the exciting experience of the approval process. [Leaders] can wave a magic wand and say ‘approve it faster’, but there are procedures in there about safety. The last thing in the world we need is to get a vaccine out there and have a whole lot of adverse reactions.”
Then there’s the massive challenge of manufacturing and distributing billions of doses of a vaccine—which, in the case of the Pfizer candidate, must be administered twice. Pfizer’s vaccine is produced with a new technology that is not available at most manufacturing facilities. Furthermore, to remain viable from production to injection, it also requires sub-zero storing temperatures. Again, most facilities and transport networks are not equipped for this.
An extended period of “COVID Normal” is a bitter pill to swallow, but Ms. Miller is encouraging her clients to do exactly that for the sake of their own resilience. She defines business continuity planning as “smoothing your business; the rough edges, the vulnerabilities, so that you're less likely to need [to execute your emergency] plan during a crisis.” With our rapid switch to COVID Normal—and increasing likelihood of remaining in this state for years—business leaders have plenty of rough edges to smooth out.
One area Ms. Miller encourages clients to look into is remote work. “What did they leave behind [when they rapidly implemented remote work]? Did the chief technical officer just pull out all the security controls to make remote working possible? I'm inviting them to look back at things that they might not have done a risk assessment on. And can we retrieve some of the good bits of the old days [for this new period of COVID Normal]?”
Another reality to bear in mind is the need for what Ms. Miller calls “COVID-plus” preparedness.
“In Australia, we're in the traditional disaster season. Things like floods, fires, cyber-attacks,
they’re not going away. So, you need to be thinking about your business continuity plans and emergency plans as hybrids with COVID safety plans. So, for instance, the New South Wales RFS has been practicing COVID-safe firefighting. When they actually have to go out there and fight fires, they keep a bit further apart, wear masks, have their food delivered in a different way.”